We have entered a new era where numerous riders can fight at the front (as many as ten?).
Last year, Ducati’s Pecco Bagnaia came on like a hurricane in the second half of the series to overcome a massive points deficit and edge out Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo, who was looking to clinch his second MotoGP championship in a row. As discussed below, Pecco and Fabio are still among the main protagonists, but there are many other riders that could not only win races, but win the championship this year.
Before we discuss each manufacturer, let’s get some context. Pre-season testing was completed at Portimao less than two weeks ago with each of the manufacturers attempting to dial in their 2023 bikes. A couple of things became relatively clear after the tests.
Ducati appears to have not only the best motorcycle going into the new year, but a surprising number of riders who are potentially both race winners and title contenders. Aprilia, which adds a second satellite team to their factory team this year (for a total of four riders) also has a competitive bike.
Yamaha has worked hard to provide a better motorcycle to its two factory riders (Yamaha loses its satellite team this year). It is difficult to tell whether it has made real progress relative to the other manufacturers. While Fabio Quartararo is arguably the most naturally gifted rider in MotoGP at the moment, and managed the third quickest time at the Portimao test, his teammate Franco Morbidelli could manage no better than the 19th fastest lap. This is reminiscent of last year when Quartararo was the only Yamaha rider that was remotely competitive … arguably because he was over-riding the flaws of his Yamaha. At the very least, Yamaha appears to have added significant horsepower to the 2023 M1, which is now capable of competitive top speeds.
So let’s discuss each of the manufacturers individually.
Ducati has an embarrassment of riches this year. The best bike and last year’s most dominant rider have dominated testing prior to the opening races (Sprint race on Saturday and full GP on Sunday) at Portimao this weekend. But the story doesn’t stop with Pecco Bagnaia. His new factory teammate, Enea Bastianini, not only won several races last year, he hounded Bagnaia all the way to the line in several others. He is a definite threat to take the title in 2023, and will likely be a thorn in Bagnaia’s side throughout the year.
Ducati returns with eight riders for 2023, and several others could post consistent results at or near the front of the pack. Pramac Ducati’s Jorge Martin is, in the opinion of many knowledgeable observers, the most talented, young Ducati pilot. Martin took several pole positions and a victory as a MotoGP rookie in 2021 despite suffering a serious injury that year. He struggled a bit in 2022, but has been impressive during the off-season, and seems to be gelling with the 2023 Ducati MotoGP bike. If he finds consistent speed this year, he could not only win several races, but the championship, as well.
Other Ducati satellite riders to watch include Johann Zarco, who posted the second quickest lap at the Portimao test, and the Mooney VR46 teammates Luca Marini and Marco Bezzecchi. Finally, Alex Marquez will be on one of the Gresini Ducatis this year, and he has already shown excellent speed during testing after leaving Honda behind.
Let’s take a look at Aprilia next. The returning factory riders are Aleix Espargaro, who stayed in contention for the championship last year until the final three rounds, and multi-time MotoGP race winner Maverick Vinales. Both Espargaro and Vinales were fast last year, but the Aprilia is clearly an even better bike for 2023.
The new Aprilia satellite team, CryptoDATA RNF, has two, young, hungry riders. Both are very talented. Miquel Oliviera is a multi-time MotoGP race winner arriving from the KTM factory team. Both he and Raul Fernandez, who spent his rookie year on a KTM satellite bike, immediately looked comfortable and fast on their new Aprilia machinery.
The bottom line with Aprilia is that it has put a solid, competitive bike beneath four talented riders, and looks poised to take both victories and podiums this year. Could one of their riders be a contender for the championship? Of course, but with the possible exception of Oliviera, we would not consider them among the favorites at this point.
There isn’t much to say about Yamaha that hasn’t already been said. They have a rider in Quartararo who has the talent to contend for the championship every year, provided he has a competitive motorcycle beneath him. It wasn’t until the last day of testing at Portimao that Quartararo said his M1 made a “breakthrough” that led him to record the third quickest lap. The most troubling sign is the continuing struggles of Franco Morbidelli, who won multiple MotoGP races and finished as vice-champion a few years ago. If Quartararo is again forced to ride the Yamaha at its absolute limits in order to stay near the front, he is destined to fail in his quest for a second championship this year.
KTM has four riders on two separate teams this year. One of those teams is branded GasGas but is running equivalent machinery to the factory KTM team. KTM has been racing at the MotoGP level for several years now (longer than Aprilia), but still seems a bit lost when it comes to bike development and set-up.
During off-season testing, KTM was generally not competitive with Ducati, or even Aprilia. Brad Binder did post the ninth quickest lap time at Portimao for KTM, but the KTM/GasGas riders, including Jack Miller, formerly with Ducati, don’t look ready to fight for wins or even podiums. The bottom line is that KTM/GasGas still need a big development step to consistently compete at the front.
Which brings us to Honda and its seven-time World champion Marc Marquez. After a fourth surgery on his arm last year, Marquez says he is now 100% healthy and ready for the new championship season. The same cannot be said for his Honda motorcycle, however.
If there is objective evidence that Honda is still behind on bike development, it comes from the younger Marquez brother, Alex. Moving from Honda to Ducati this year, Alex is suddenly faster than his famous older brother. Alex Marquez has expressed his frustration with his years at Honda, and openly acknowledged that the bike had held him back.
Of course Marc Marquez is a special rider, and we can see him finding his way to the front on occasion, and even winning at some of his favorite tracks this year, such as COTA. The danger we see for Marc Marquez is his refusal to accept lower finishing positions, and more than occasionally crashing. DNFs and possible injuries, may prevent Marquez from gaining enough points to compete for the championship this year. His aggressiveness can bite him, and the odds of his crashing, or suffering injury, unfortunately have gone way up given the addition of the sprint races.
Former champ Joan Mir and multi-time MotoGP race winner Alex Rins aboard Hondas this year creates some new interest. In our opinion, Rins is the faster of the two at this point, but he may not receive the development support on his satellite bike that Mir does as a factory rider. In any event, we could see Rins battling at the front on occasion, as he still has a great deal of confidence after winning a couple of races near the end of the prior season aboard his Suzuki.
So who does MD put on its not-so-short list of contenders for the 2023 MotoGP championship? Pecco Bagnaia, Fabio Quartararo, Enea Bastianini, Jorge Martin and Miguel Oliviera.
What are your thoughts? Weigh in with your comments below.
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